Does Donald Trump Have Any Chance at the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize?

This year’s Nobel Peace Prize winner’s name has already been published. US President Donald Trump didn’t receive it this year. This year’s Nobel got extra attention due to Mr. Trump’s claiming the Nobel in almost every speech. However that doesn’t end the debate whether he deserves a Nobel Peace Prize or not. After securing a historic 2nd term as President of the United States, he now desires to be the only 5th US President to ever be awarded a Nobel Prize. He even has a specific choice among the 6 categories of Nobel Prize awarded. Only a Nobel Peace Prize can now give him eternal peace of mind. Why does he think he deserves a Nobel Peace Prize? Well, short answer, he claimed to have successfully stopped 7 wars across the world. Is the Nobel Peace Prize only given for stopping war? Or does stopping war actually ensure peace? Both of the answers are no. Still, Donald Trump doesn’t seem to be losing hope!

The last US President to win a Nobel Peace Prize is Barack Obama, Mr. Trump’s predecessor in his first term. Just within eight months of getting into the office, he was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize. Why was Barack Obama awarded the Nobel Peace Prize? In Trump’s words, he got the Nobel for nothing! We may criticize his rhetoric but Mr. Obama’s getting the Nobel Peace Prize is one of the most controversial awards of the Nobel in history. No one actually has any clear idea exactly for what reason Obama did get the Nobel. Officially he was awarded for his “extraordinary efforts to strengthen international diplomacy and cooperation between peoples”, very much vague and subjective ground for any award like Nobel!

If we compare with Obama, Trump has achieved far more in terms of diplomacy in his first term and roughly 8 months of his second term. His “Abraham Accord” was a ground move that actually made history. Even Saudi Arabia was very close to recognizing Israel. This one deal has changed the politics of the middle east forever. Mr. Trump could have given more emphasis on “Abraham Accord” than list of ceasefires to argue for his Nobel Peace Prize. In contrast, it’s really hard to find any substantial achievement of Barack Obama which can justify his Nobel.

First, let’s look at the cause for which the Nobel Peace Prize is given. As per Alfred Nobel’s will, any person or organization “who shall have done the most or the best work for fraternity between nations, for the abolition or reduction of standing armies and for the holding and promotion of peace congresses” is supposed to be awarded this. However, over time, the concept of peace and its recognition varied. Bangladeshi Interim Leader Muhammad Yunus was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize despite his work having no direct connection with any war or conflict.

So, there is not a very set criteria or policy regarding how to select a Nobel Peace Prize winner. It makes the choice of the winner very much subjective and vague. Thus every year it becomes an interest of suspense for the world. As per their statue, nomination for Nobel Peace Prize has to be submitted before 31st January of that year. For this year, the number of candidates that have been nominated was 338 and there are no ways to verify whether Trump was on the list or not. He had taken oath as 47th President of the US just a few days ago, on 20th January before the nomination period ended for this year. Certainly nothing major happened in that very first 10 days of his presidency that made him eligible for a Nobel.

However, in history, there are precedents where people get Nobel Peace Prize for their contribution in ending war or arranging ceasefire. The most notable example could be Henry Kissinger, for his role in ending the Vietnam war. Though it was very much controversial as he was accused of “war crimes”. In the year of 1994, Palestinian Leader Yasser Arafat along with Israeli PM Yitzhak Rabin and FM Shimon Peres were awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in recognition of their effort to sign the historic Oslo Accord. Which was to be a foundation of long term peace in the middle east.

Donald Trump’s some of the major commitments before the election were stopping the Ukraine and Gaza wars. He was so much confident with his influence on Putin that he claimed he would stop the Ukraine war within hours stepping into the White house! However he still failed miserably in this attempt. The Ukraine war is still going on with no sign of ceasefire or peace in sight. Though there has been a ceasefire implemented in Gaza as of now due to Trump’s 20 point peace plan. Though the full implementation of the plan and restoring of complete peace are yet to be done.

With this 20 point plan, Trump now claims to stop 8 wars. As per the reports, these are Israel-Gaza, Israel-Iran, Egypt-Ethopia, Armenia-Azerbaijan, India-Pakistan, Rwanda-DRC, Thailand-Combodia and Serbia-Kosovo. Some of these wars’ participants have credited him for his contributions. For example, both Armenia and Azerbaijan nominated Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize as he mediated to stop their fighting. Israel and Pakistan have shown gratitude towards Trump for ending their respective war against Iran-Gaza and India. Besides these countries, Trump gets nominations from various influential political leaders across the world.

However, all these happened after the cutoff date passed. So for the year of 2025, all these contributions and nominations were not supposed to be considered by the Nobel Committee. Mr. Trump can hope for next year’s Nobel Peace prize as his activities fall within the timeline for the year of 2026. Maybe the Nobel Committee will scrutinize his efforts and nominations and in the meantime, the actual impact of all his mediated ceasefire will be observed. This is what actually matters most. How the peace is restored and maintained will be his primary ground for getting a Nobel. Till then we need to wait to jump into a conclusion.

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